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Is China a leading indicator? Part 6
Yesterday was another bullish day in global stock markets. The DOW was up almost 200 points, the S&P 500 has finally broken above a stubborn resistance level of 1150 and it looks like the bulls are in charge for now. The Australian market followed the overnight lead from the US and the All Ords jumped [...]
Is China a leading indicator? Part 5 – China enters bear market
China is officially in a bear market as the Shanghai Composite index fell over 20% from the highs of 2009. From the chart above, we can see that the index has clearly broken below the trading range noted in my last post Is China a leading indicator? Part 4 on Mar 16. China has been [...]
Is China a leading indicator? Part 4
I have been tracking the Shanghai Composite Index on this blog since August 2009, when it made a sharp 20% correction. When I last looked at the Shanghai Composite Index on December 22, 2009, it looked like it was on the verge of breaking the long-term up trend line that started from November 2008. It [...]
What Chinese Malls Tell Us about the Economic Reality
Below is an article from Elliott Wave International which I thought fits well into our series on China. For a short time only (until March 2, 2010) readers can also download a free report that will give you a perspective of global markets, including Australia, to help you shape your investment theme for 2010. I [...]
Year of the Tiger: expect loud roaring
Last Sunday, 14 February 2010 was the start of the Chinese Year of the Tiger. I received lots of emails and text messages from my Malaysian friends with wishes like “May you have a roaring start for the Year of the Tiger” or “May your year ahead roar with success”. I am not superstitious but [...]
Is there really an overcapacity problem in China?
I have been reading about the overcapacity problem in China in financial blogs for quite a few months now. I have seen youtube videos about empty cities in China but there were no hard numbers on how big a problem this is until Jim Chanos announced some findings from his research on China to the [...]
Is China a leading indicator? Part 3
Today as I looked at my list of world stock market indices, every major market index in US, Europe and Asia was up, except one – the Shanghai Composite. At the time of writing of this blog post, it was in the red by 0.59%. I guess China did not get memo about the Santa [...]
Is China a leading indicator? Part 2
On August 20, I wrote my first post on this when the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) convincing broke through the multi-month uptrend line. Since then, the index has completed a failed retest of the trend line from the back side and has put in a lower high similar to Jan 08. This is very bearish and [...]
Update on China’s 8% GDP growth
China has declared a target of 8% GDP growth for 2009 and from economic statistics released by the Chinese governments, it looks like they are on track to achieve this. This is very impressive considering Russia another member of the high growth “BRIC” nations (comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China) has just declared a -10.1% [...]
Is China a leading indicator?
China’s stock market started rebounding in November 2008, about four months before most other global markets which only started their rallies around March 09. I have been watching the Shanghai Composite Index (ticker symbol ^SSEC on Yahoo Finance) which has rallied about 100% since Nov 2008 and seems to have peeked around early August 2009. [...]
